Scenario Forecasting

Simulate program scenarios to reduce costs without sacrificing performance.

2Is Inc. builds large-scale models that provide detailed analyses to support end users’ objectives to understand operational availability (Ao), cost per flying hour (CPFH), and material availability (MA). Our simulations extend insight into inventory levels and cost/profit profiles. Our models are powered by data and program assumptions to simulate program costs and changing contractual requirements, offering a path for pricing to win with confidence. Through scenario forecasting, 2Is Inc. quantifies the impact of customers’ contractual and program management incentives and penalties.

2Is' parallelized Monte Carlo simulations employ rigorous statistical analysis to bound and quantify risk, providing insight into forecasted program operational availability and other key performance metrics. Our model outputs illustrate the results at a part (atomic) level and roll up the information into the program level, allowing customers to dive into simulation results for thorough analysis.

We design our simulations with flexibility in mind. Our models allow customers to change program operations location, adjust operational tempo, and modify variation applied to various components to allow for forecasting and analysis of various scenarios.

2Is Inc. has experience developing a variety of models, suited to each program's needs and designed to appropriately simulate the available data. Existing infrastructure includes historical demand-based models for programs with rich data history, and forward-looking logistics models for programs with variable data and expected changes to fleet size or operational tempo.

2Is' models integrate with ERP systems for operational support throughout the program, using live data to provide dynamic forecasting and ensure operational availability and other key program metrics are met or exceeded.